August 27 2025

Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The takeaway remains the same: prices are rising year-over-year, but at an increasingly slow rate. Case Shiller--the more volatile index--is at the lowest pace in more than 2 years while the broader FHFA index is the lowest since 2012 in year-over-year terms.   FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) June: −0.2%; May was revised to −0.1% from unchanged YoY: +2.9% from June 2024 to June 2025 All nine census divisions remained positive YoY, with gains ranging from +0.7% in the Mountain division to +6.7% in the Middle Atlantic. Case-Shiller National Index (unadjusted) YoY: +1.9% in June, down from +2.3% in May MoM (non seasonally adjusted): +0.4% MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.3% The 20-City Composite posted a −0.3% MoM decline (SA) and a +2.1% YoY gain. The 10-City Composite was slightly firmer at −0.1% MoM and +2.6% YoY. Seasonally Adjusted Comparison: Index MoM (SA) YoY FHFA HPI −0.2% +2.9% Case-Shiller −0.3% +1.9% Non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller readings still show the usual spring/summer uptick, but once adjusted for seasonality the underlying trend is negative. FHFA data also points to weakening, with its second consecutive month of declines.

August 27 2025

The latest New Home Sales report showed little change in July, with sales holding very close to June’s pace. The seasonally-adjusted annual sales rate came in at 652,000. This marks a -0.6% dip from June’s revised 656,000, and leaves sales -8.2% lower than July 2024’s 710,000 level. For all practical purposes, the pace of sales continues to run sideways, reflecting the same stable range seen over the past 2+ years despite periodic swings. Regional Breakdown (Sales, July 2025) South: -3.5% MoM Midwest: -6.6% MoM Northeast: unchanged MoM West: +11.7% MoM Market Inventory & Pricing Homes for sale: 499,000 units (-0.6% from June; +7.3% YoY) Months’ supply: 9.2 months (flat MoM; +16.5% YoY) Median sales price: $403,800 (-0.8% MoM; -5.9% YoY) Average sales price: $487,300 (-3.6% MoM; -5.0% YoY) Big Picture Takeaway July’s new home sales data reinforces the recent pattern: demand is steady at best, but not accelerating. Inventory remains elevated, keeping months’ supply near multi-year highs. While prices have softened meaningfully versus last year (reflecting lower square footage more than actual price declines), elevated housing costs continue to limit the benefit to buyers.

August 27 2025

Mortgage application activity was little changed last week, with only a fractional decline in overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 0.5% decrease in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 22, 2025. “Mortgage rates inched higher for the second straight week, with the 30-year fixed-rate up to 6.69 percent. While this was not a significant increase, it was enough to cause a pullback in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications had their strongest week in over a month, up 2 percent, and the average loan size increased to its highest level in two months at $433,400.” The Refinance Index fell 4% from the previous week but remains 19% higher than the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index rose 2% on a seasonally adjusted basis and is running 25% ahead of last year’s level. The refinance share of total mortgage applications decreased to 45.3%. ARM share declined to 8.4%. FHA share held steady at 19.1%, while VA share slipped to 13.3%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.69% (from 6.68%) | Points: 0.60 (unchanged) 15yr Fixed: 6.03% (from 5.96%) | Points: 0.77 (up from 0.70) Jumbo 30yr: 6.67% (from 6.64%) | Points: 0.44 (down from 0.60) FHA: 6.35% (from 6.39%) | Points: 0.80 (up from 0.66) 5/1 ARM: 5.94% (from 6.01%) | Points: 0.68 (up from 0.63)